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Quantifying Cost Estimate Risks

We provide training to individuals for career growth. We offer instructor led training and virtual classes for individuals and corporations for an incredible value.

Were you challenged by 10% of TIC you added in your estimate as contigency?
You know the contingency should come from risk quantification but do you know how to do it?
Risk Subject Matter Expert JOHN ZHAO will help you to unveil the myth of risk quantification

With this training, you will turn yourself into a Risk Management Expert!

i-PCI invites you to:

Building Simulation Model Using @RISK


Nov 24th, 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM MST, Calgary, AB


Save $50 per person on Group Discount Ticket! Minimum 2 tickets purchase required.
Please send email to info@i-pci.com for other payment options.


John Zhao , Director of Riskcore Ltd., is a senior consultant with 30 years experience in infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, commercial construction, and refining industries. He is a Subject Matter Expert in Quantitative Risk Analysis, having facilitated over 100 risk workshops and conducted Quantitative Risk Analysis sessions totalling over $60 Billion.


– 2008 Canadian Institute EPC Project Risk Management conference in Calgary titled “Risks in EPC World”

– 2008 Palisade @RISK Energy Forum in Calgary titled “The Cost of Risk – Quantification”

– 2010 Palisade @RISK conference in London England titled “Put More Science in Cost Risk Analysis”

– 2011 SPE Technical Conference in Denver USA titled “Understanding and Handling Residual Risks”

– 2013 Canadian institute EPCM conference in Calgary titled “what does an owner company want from EPC firms?”

– 2014 Canadian institute EPCM conference in Calgary titled “Managing Risks of Overseas Engineering and Fabrication”

– 2015 Palisade @RISK Conference in Calgary titled “Quantifying Management Reserves using Binomial Distribution”


  • The Objectives of Quantitative Risk Analysis: contingency or schedule delay or both
  • Ingredients as the Inputs to QRA: systemic risk identification and semi-quantification
  • Risk Workshop Facilitation: estimate variables, the process, techniques and outcomes
  • Simulation Model Building Technique: how to model inherent cost estimate risks
  • And So Much More......

Please act quickly, risk quantification workshop is one of the most popular events we hold. They sell out quickly.

Thank you, and hope to see you there.

The i-PCI team


What You Will Receive:

35 Course Contact Hours that you will need to apply for the exam

A Certificate of course completion

PMI PMBOK Guide – electronic version

Student workbook – electronic version

PMP Exam prep book – electronic version

PMP quick reference guide for study – electronic version

Data base of quizzes, 4 exam simulators and flash cards to install on your laptop

One gig of additional PMP study information and examples

Make PMP Exam Prep Affordable:

About the Principal Consultant/Instructor – Kevin Davis:

PMP Exam Prep Principal Instructor: More than 5 years

Licensed Content Training Partner with Velociteach: www.velociteach.com

Project Manager Experience: 17 years

Education: Master’s Certificate in Advanced Project Management

PMP Training Client:

  • Colonial Pipeline
  • Fulton Co Government(construction)
  • Coca-Cola
  • AT & T
  • JPMogan
  • British Airways
  • Embraer Aircraft
  • U.S. Dept of Labor
  • Georgia Dept of Health
  • Florida Dept of Children and Families
  • Harsco Rail(Canada)
  • ....

View Details on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-davis-pmp

PMP Examp Prep Course Outline 4 day Boot Camp:

Module 1 - Foundational Concepts

Module 2 - Process Framework

Module 3 - Integration Management

Module 4 - Scope Management

Module 5 - Time Management

Module 6 - Network Diagramming

Module 7 - Cost Management

Module 8 - Earned Value Management

Module 9 - Quality Management

Module 10 - Human Resource Management

Module 11 - Communications Management

Module 12 - Risk Management

Module 13 - Procurement Management

Module 14 - Stakeholder Management

Module 15 - Pass the PMP

Webinar: Projects, Risks and Contingency


Click Here to Sign Up!

Some major projects in the industry of energy, petrochemicals, mining and infrastructures became train wrecks. Reasons of project failures have been studied by a variety of organizations, and "lack risk management" is one of them. Project Risk management is still a new breed of sound project management despite its development in past dacade or two, refined PMBOK Chapter 11, AACEi DRMP certificate, QRA technique and the other decision supporting systems under risk conditions are all relatively anew with about 10 years of maturity. Whilst many don't really take qualitative risk assessment seriously, only hiring juniors to coordinate the efforts, the QRA process does not have a good fate either. It is not uncommonthat that contingencies are simply added to cost estimates without any QRA process, resulting in either inflated cost estimates (wasting capital) or frequent cost overruns (unrealistic budgets). Methodology of applying QRA is determined by the stage of projects and the purpose of cost estimates, no one single method is superior to the other, a composite solution to consider estimate line item specific risks, project wide systemic risks, execution schedule delay risks, escalation and rare-event driven risks (for management reserve) is worth considering and discussing. RISCORTM risk model was conceived, developed, implemented (in Suncor) and matured since 2005 having applied to 100+ capital projects in both North America and Europe, from $30M to $10Billion projects, from oil & gas to mining, from upstream to pipeline and downstream. This dynamic and stochastic project risk model integrates qualitative and quantitative risk assessment processes and generates convincing and defendable project contingency, to minimize the probability of project failures.

About John Zhao , MSc:
John has 27 years of experience in heavy construction, the petrochemical, pharmaceutical, and oil and gas sectors, along with involvement in municipal facilities and commercial construction. He has worked in the Middle East, Europe and North America. John graduated with a BSc. in Building Design and Management and gravitated towards project controls and risk management. He has been practicing in these areas for over 20 years during which he has developed his proprietary RISCOR stochastic simulation model to predict the impact of both project-specific and systemic risks. John is a recognized authority on the integrated application of risk methodology from early-stage project development through project execution including contracting strategy, bid evaluation and stage-gate reviews. He has taught risk management at the universities of Calgary and Mount Royal, and for AACE International and the Project Management Institute and is a regularly presenter on the topic of risk management, contracting strategy and project contingency, in the international arena. In 2008, John received an MSc. Project Management from Northumbria University, UK.

Project Risk Quantification

Practical, Realistic Methods for Contingency, Reserves and Escalation

Click Here to Sign Up! The course starts with learning the basics of risk management (RM) and dealing with uncertainty in investment and bid decisions and project control (i.e. the context.) Fundamentals such as terminology and statistics are covered. Attendees will then learn how to elicit information about risks and use it to perform integrated, probabilistic cost and schedule risk analysis for contingency, reserves and escalation in a step-by-step manner in accordance with the text (“Project Risk Quantification”) including exercises to reinforce the lessons. The content is consistent with AACEI Recommended Practices where applicable. Quantification at different project phases is covered, including capturing historical data to improve future risk analyses. In addition, the attendees will learn about landmark empirical research, example cases, tips and rules-of-thumb and watch-outs. Attendees will also be provided with practice guidelines, tools and templates to help put the practices into action at their workplace.

How to Calculate "Management Reserve Fund"

Click Here to Sign Up! When quantitative risk analysis is performed for project cost contingency in capital project world, discrete risks are often ignored as focuses are often on risky items with the "continuous distribution". Those independent, uncorrelated and rare-event driven risks, however, often than not are the culprits that throw the projects upside down. To compensate and to increase the probability of project success, the Management Reserve Fund hence is generated in addition to project contingency. How to properly capture the effects of those discrete risks and their impacts on projects' outcome, what methodology should be used to document and simulate these types of risks are the combination of arts and sciences. This set of presentation provides illustrations with real case studies to showcase the methods and techniques for this application.

The Future of Project Controls: An Integrated Solution

Click Here to Sign Up! This presentation will discuss the need for an integrated approach between cost estimating and cost control, instead of treating them as isolated disciplines. Why this is important and what benefits can be held when using an integrated approach will be explained using practical examples. At the end of the presentation, it will be demonstrated how this integrated approach can be achieved with today’s technology.

Expert Panel

John Zhao
Panel Member

John McConville
Panel Member

Sandra MacGillivray
Panel Member

Nell van Walsum
Panel Member

Contact Us

We value your feedback and welcome your questions about our institution and operations.

Phone: +1-403-837-8888

Email: info@i-pci.com

Address: 205 5 Avenue SW, Calgary, AB, T2P 3G6, Canada

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About Us

i-PCI, International Project Controls Institute, is an organization with world wide well known experts focusing on Project Controls research, learning and collaboration. Project Controls Community is its collaborative platform established for Project Controls Professionals to extend business network and share industry news, jobs, training videos, templates, presentations, and of course the inspired blogs. i-PCI is a great place to Share & Learn with Project Controls peers!

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